This Land Ltd - losing £1 million on every house sold in 2024-25?

Cambridgeshire County Council needs to come clean with taxpayers over failed housing company

By Andrew Rowson

Last December, at a meeting of the full Cambridgeshire County Council (CCC), a member of the public (Mr Guy Lachlan), asked Cllr Lucy Nethsingha about the performance of This Land Ltd, the authority’s wholly owned housing development company.  This was the council leader's reply:

“The company has enabled the building of nearly 1,000 homes, including 300 affordable homes, with plans to deliver over 4,700 more, of which around 1,700 will be affordable.  In continually assessing the value of the company, we hold regular meetings to discuss progress and performance, as well as to ensure the company is following its business plan and provide security for our loans.”

It was a highly inaccurate and misleading statement in several ways, not least in the use of the phrase “enabled the building of...”.  What the councillor meant, but did not say, is that to address This Land’s chronic lack of cash and its hopelessly over-simplified business plans, the company has sold off to developers at least £78 million worth of its own mortgaged land purchased from CCC for the express purpose of building houses on it and selling them for profit.  It was those developers, who sometimes picked up the properties for much less than they were worth, who are responsible for the 1,000 homes statistic, if even that is an accurate figure.  In all but one instance, This Land kept all the onward sale proceeds, failing to repay the County Council the mortgage principal.  That apparent breach of legal mortgage agreements between This Land and CCC largely explains why the company’s debt (before the recent debt write-offs) is £119.8m, whilst its shareholder's land security in March this year was only £24.4m.  

As for This Land itself, in the eight accounting periods to March 2024, audited accounts filed at Companies House show that it sold just 76 homes, at average prices ranging between £247,000 and £561,000 per unit per year.

The public cannot see how many houses This Land alone has built or plans to build in the future.  That information is not shown in the latest business plan published in July. It might be held in one of the confidential appendices only some county councillors have been allowed to see.  In addition, for the fourth consecutive year, CCC has denied a member of the public’s request to inspect This Land’s draft accounts during the statutory document inspection period – in breach of the law.

This Land’s 2024/25 audited accounts are unlikely to be published before the end of the year, which is only three months before the end of the 2025-26 accounting period.  In the meantime, some details about its 2024-25 performance have emerged in This Land’s accounts consolidation schedules – figures This Land produced for the County Council to construct its own consolidated group accounts.

The table above shows This Land's 2024-25 house sales in sharp decline over the last two years.  The £5.693m revenue figure for 2024-25 in fact covers house and land sales, but the consolidation schedules do not show the split.  However, the indications are that This Land may have run out of surplus land to sell to keep itself afloat.  So most, if not all that figure is likely to be house sales.  Although This Land is supposed to be a housebuilding company, historically less than a quarter of its sales revenue has come from selling houses.  In the four years to 2023-24, 76%  came from cannibalising its own mortgaged property portfolio to avoid running out of cash altogether.

If one assumes all of This Land's 2024-25 sales revenue came from selling houses, that would represent a 42% fall in house sales on the previous year.  So how many houses did This Land manage to sell in 2024-25?  The number of units is not included in the consolidation schedules, though it should be stated in the draft accounts.  If one takes the same average sale price per unit as the year before, (£427,400) that would be just 13 houses sold in This Land’s ninth year of activity.  If the average sale price in 2024-25 were higher than that, or some of the revenue related to land sales, the number of units sold would be correspondingly lower, and the loss per sale higher.  13 house sales would mean a comprehensive loss of £1.05 million for each house This Land sold in 2024-25 (£13.633m / 13) - at a time when it had to be ramping up construction and sales by at least an order of magnitude to stand any chance of meeting its loan repayment promises.  Without the £65.7m write-off, This Land will need to repay its lender, CCC £120 million of loan principal, plus at least £35 million of loan interest in the next five years - with all of those repayments having to come from house sale profits.

In March this year,  CCC wrote-off £59.85m of those loans, plus 100% of its £5.85m equity "investment" in This Land, and called the company a going-concern as a result.  At the same time, Cllr Nethsingha insisted it was not a write-off and bizarrely, that all the loans and interest will be repaid, apparently by 2030, with no new funding needed.  The new Chair of the council's Shareholder Sub-Committee, Cllr Karen Young, echoed that upbeat message in a written answer at July's full council meeting: 

"This Land themselves will continue accounting for the full repayment of the amounts lent by the Council."

Putting aside the write-off contradictions above, full repayment seems impossible given the ingredients This Land now has to work with.  At 31st March this year, the company had £11m of cash in the bank and inventory worth £46.7m, of which £24.4m was land.  To repay all loans and interest, This Land would need to convert those assets into profits of £160 million - £32m/year on average, including 2025-26.  With even an exceptionally optimistic net profit margin of 20%, (compared to the minus 183% margin in 2024-25), that means This Land's total house sales would need to be £960 million over five years, or £192m per year on average until 2030.  If one also takes a highly optimistic average unit sale price of £450,000 - (given This Land's commitment to 45% affordable houses), it means This Land would need to build and sell on average 427 houses each year until 2030:  2,135 houses in total.  Looking at the actual numbers and the direction of travel of This Land's house sales over the last three years (33, 23, 13 units), it is clear that the latest business plan, like its predecessors, is another work of fiction, apparently intended to deceive the public. 

In January this year, on local auditor KPMG's recommendation, CCC's councillors serving on the Shareholder Sub-Committee were given governance training, specifically to equip them to challenge This Land's business plans.  This was in response to KPMG's findings from its 2023-24 audit of CCC's single entity and group accounts:

"Based on our findings we have determined that there is a significant weakness in relation to arrangements for economy, efficiency and effectiveness due to the lack of expertise required to oversee and challenge commercial subsidiaries, particularly This Land."

Yet in July this year, in secret session, the Sub-Committee voted unanimously to approve This Land's revised business plan (which does recognise the huge write-off), but whose arithmetic does not begin to add up, as explained in a previous blog post.

Déjà vu

An elected member from CCC's last administration recently admitted in writing that even four years ago, This Land's assets were between £50m and £90m lower than its liabilities, and that the leadership decided it could not wind up the company immediately because that would mean CCC inheriting the debt, which would bankrupt the council.  Four years ago, This Land's official comprehensive losses were just below £20 million.  So what did CCC do?  It put its collective head in the sand, hoping that somehow things would get better.  Predictably, they got worse.  Now This Land's comprehensive losses are £63.9 million, and the authority is again ploughing on as before, losing over £1 million every month, and over £1 million per house sold.

This Land's revised business plan is a thoroughly dishonest document.  Its cashflow model at paragraph 3.5 provides no useful information.  It simply shows net flows per year, without revealing the corresponding outflows and inflows, or how many houses are due to be built and sold each year.  It does not show the expected profit margin from those sales, or explain how the company can suddenly produce healthy positive profit margins at scale, after years of profoundly negative margins.  It does not explain where This Land will obtain the cash to build the houses that are to produce the model's implausible positive net cashflows.  Nor does it explain how This Land will fit over 2,000 houses onto the remaining land from its portfolio that it has not yet sold to developers, without buying more land with more money loaned by CCC five years after the government outlawed councils borrowing from the Public Works Loan Board to fund commercial activity.

Finally, CCC has chosen to conceal six appendices to This Land's latest business plan that might shed some light on the headline figures.  It declares it is not in the public interest for the public to see that information.

Nowhere has This Land or CCC explained why This Land's house sales have shrunk by 61% in two years, or why average house prices have fluctuated so wildly from year to year.  The public has been kept totally in the dark, and we are expected to put our trust in figures that, as currently presented, make no sense at all, and also to put nearly £200 million of our money in the hands of elected members who the auditor thinks lack the expertise or the curiosity to ensure taxpayers' money is well managed.  Here is another quote from KPMG's latest year-end report to the Audit & Accounts Committee in February this year:

"We reviewed the corporate risk register and noted that there was not a specific risk associated with This Land. Given the potential risk to the Council of This Land falling further behind the business plan, we would expect there to be a risk on the Corporate Risk Register to ensure there is appropriate understanding and oversight over the risk as it may emerge."

Produce the information, or close down This Land now.

In light of This Land's rapid decline in commercial performance, the arithmetic impossibility of the latest business plan working, and the recent £65.7m write-off that was kept secret for nearly four months until after the local elections, the public is entitled to much more and better information.  In 2021 CCC chose not to close the company down for fear of bankrupting the council, when This Land's losses were less than a third of what they are now.  So there is every reason to suspect the same irrational motive for inaction persists today at CCC.  Doing nothing and hoping for the best does not reduce the risk of bankrupting the council, it magnifies it.

Local taxpayers need to see the hidden, so-called commercially sensitive appendices to the latest business plan and This Land's draft accounts for 2024-25 which should provide them with essential facts they have every right to see.  Besides, a company that has been forgiven £60m worth of debt and gifted a two-year loan interest holiday worth a further £15 million so it can carry on losing a million pounds of public money each month is clearly not operating in the same commercially competitive environment as other local housebuilders.  They would have gone bust and left the marketplace years ago had they performed as poorly.  The "commercial sensitivity" argument for CCC concealing embarrassing information therefore expired years ago.  The County Council needs to come clean and produce all the hidden facts and figures without delay, or else close the company down now in the taxpayers' interest, whatever the wider ramifications might be.